Manchester United FC vs Manchester City FC AI Prediction
Odds and AI edge
| Outcome | Odds | Bookmaker % | AI % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 · Manchester United FC | 3.17 | 30% | 29% | -1 pp |
| X · Draw | 3.80 | 25% | 25% | -0 pp |
| 2 · Manchester City FC | 2.11 | 45% | 46% | +1 pp |
Bookmaker probabilities are shown without the margin. Odds change quickly, check them before placing a bet.
Match info
Lineups
Official starting lineups announced before kick-off.
Manchester United FCConfirmed4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1S. Lammens
- 2Diogo Dalot
- 5H. Maguire
- 6Lisandro Martínez
- 13P. Dorgu
- 18Y. Tielemans
- 37K. Mainoo
- 19B. Mbeumo
- 8Bruno Fernandes
- 9M. Rashford
- 10Matheus Cunha
Substitutes (9)
- 26A. Heaven
- 3N. Mazraoui
- 15L. Yoro
- 17Andrey Santos
- 7M. Mount
- 31S. Lacey
- 30B. Šeško
- 12K. Darlow
- 11J. Zirkzee
Coach: M. Carrick
Manchester City FCConfirmed4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1G. Donnarumma
- 27Matheus Nunes
- 3Rúben Dias
- 6M. Guéhi
- 24J. Gvardiol
- 17E. Fernández
- 5E. Anderson
- 47P. Foden
- 10R. Cherki
- 42A. Semenyo
- 9E. Haaland
Substitutes (9)
- 7I. Ndiaye
- 28G. Rulli
- 37Allan
- 82R. Lewis
- 45A. Khusanov
- 33N. O'Reilly
- 22Vitor Nunes
- 8M. Kovačić
- 32A. Bouaddi
Coach: E. Maresca
Form and statistics
| Manchester United FC | Manchester City FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Latest matches, friendlies excluded (number in brackets) | ||
| Form | LWDW | LWWWW |
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-1 (4) | 4-0-2 (6) |
| Goals scored per match | 2.75 | 1.67 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.50 | 1.17 |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 25% | 17% |
| Premier League 2026: league table | ||
| Position | 13. | 2. |
| Points (played) | 4 (4) | 12 (4) |
| Goals for:against | 7:7 | 8:2 |
| At home: W-D-L, goals | 1-0-1 · 5:3 | 2-0-0 · 3:1 |
| Away: W-D-L, goals | 0-1-1 · 2:4 | 2-0-0 · 5:1 |
Manchester City FC: latest matches
Manchester United FC vs Manchester City FC: head to head
10 meetings · Goals per match 2.6 · Both teams scored 60% · Over 2.5 goals 70%
- Manchester United2:0Manchester City
- Manchester City3:0Manchester United
- Manchester United0:0Manchester City
- Manchester City1:2Manchester United
- Manchester City1:1Manchester United
- Manchester City1:2Manchester United
- Manchester City3:1Manchester United
- Manchester United0:3Manchester City
- Manchester City2:1Manchester United
- Manchester United2:1Manchester City
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8:1 | +7 | 12 | WWWW |
| 2 | Manchester City | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8:2 | +6 | 12 | WWWW |
| 3 |  Hull City | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5:2 | +3 | 8 | DDWW |
| 4 |  Brighton | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 13:5 | +8 | 7 | WDLW |
| 5 |  Chelsea | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10:9 | +1 | 7 | DLWW |
| 6 |  Brentford | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7:4 | +3 | 6 | DDDW |
| 7 |  Liverpool | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6:4 | +2 | 6 | DWDD |
| 8 |  Everton | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5:3 | +2 | 6 | DDDW |
| 9 |  Ipswich | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7:10 | -3 | 6 | WLLW |
| 10 |  Newcastle | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6:4 | +2 | 5 | DWD |
| 11 |  Leeds | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3:2 | +1 | 5 | DDW |
| 12 |  Nottingham Forest | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4:4 | 0 | 5 | WDDL |
| 13 | Manchester United | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7:7 | 0 | 4 | LDWL |
| 14 |  Sunderland | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3:5 | -2 | 4 | LDWL |
| 15 |  Bournemouth | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6:7 | -1 | 3 | DDDL |
| 16 |  Crystal Palace | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6:11 | -5 | 3 | LWLL |
| 17 |  Tottenham | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0:5 | -5 | 2 | DDLL |
| 18 |  Fulham | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4:7 | -3 | 1 | DLLL |
| 19 |  Aston Villa | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1:7 | -6 | 1 | LDLL |
| 20 |  Coventry | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0:10 | -10 | 0 | LLLL |
Table updated 14 Sept 2026.
Manchester United FC vs Manchester City FC: match analysis
Manchester United host Manchester City in a high-stakes Premier League clash at Old Trafford. The game pits United’s home threat against City’s stronger recent form and a defensive unit that stands out in this matchup, with the visitors expected to edge a tight affair.
Form and context
City arrive with superior recent form and stronger defensive numbers, which gives them the edge in this derby. United’s home advantage should create chances, especially in transition, keeping the outcome open but leaning toward a narrow away win.
Key factors
- City hold the edge in recent form compared to United.
- Defence: City are markedly stronger than United.
- The recommended game outcome is a narrow away win with goals on both sides.
Verdict
The pick is Manchester City to win the match away from home. Expect a tight contest that ends with a scoreline of 1-2 in City’s favor.
More Premier League matches on this day
Manchester United FC vs Manchester City FC: AI prediction
Manchester United FC host Manchester City FC in Premier League on . Our AI gives Manchester United FC 29%, a draw 25% and Manchester City FC 46%. The predicted outcome is Manchester City FC to win and the most likely correct score is 1-2.
The match is played at Old Trafford in Manchester. Manchester United FC are coached by M. Carrick and Manchester City FC by E. Maresca. In the Premier League table Manchester United FC are in position 13 (4 pts) and Manchester City FC in position 2 (12 pts).
Goals markets: BTTS and over/under
The chance that both teams score is 61%, and the probability of over 2.5 goals is 61%. These figures come from the AI analysis of both teams' recent scoring form, league position, head-to-head results and match statistics, together with bookmaker odds when they are available.
Head to head and form
In their last 10 head-to-head meetings Manchester United FC won 4, Manchester City FC won 4 and 2 ended in a draw. Manchester City FC: W. The prediction is created up to 7 days before kick-off and recalculated once bookmaker odds are published, usually a few days before the match. The written analysis on this page is also generated by AI from the prediction and the match data.
Across Premier League the AI hit 47% of 1X2 predictions in the last 30 days. Use this preview as one input for your decision and bet responsibly.
Compare this preview with other fixtures on the Premier League predictions page, or open the Manchester United FC and Manchester City FC team pages for their full schedules.
Frequently asked questions
What does the model say about this game?
It leans toward an away win with a 1-2 scoreline, supported by a belief in goals from both sides.
Are there any notable risk factors for this tip?
The main risk is that United could exploit the home atmosphere and transitional play to disrupt City, though the model expects City to prevail.
Who will win Manchester United FC vs Manchester City FC?
Our AI predicts Manchester City FC to win. Win probabilities are Manchester United FC 29%, draw 25%, Manchester City FC 46%.
What is the correct score prediction for Manchester United FC vs Manchester City FC?
The most likely correct score according to the AI is 1-2.
Will both teams score in Manchester United FC vs Manchester City FC?
The AI estimates a 61% chance that both teams score, and a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals.
When does Manchester United FC vs Manchester City FC kick off?
Manchester United FC vs Manchester City FC (Premier League) kicks off on . The prediction is recalculated when bookmaker odds for the match are published.
Predictions are generated by a statistical AI model from form, odds and match data. They are not a guarantee of any result. 18+ only, please bet responsibly.